Is solar worth it in 2026? The honest, state-by-state way to decide
Answer-first page — the first paragraph is the whole answer, checked reviewed 2026-08-08
Short answer: it usually is in places with a decent bill, a clean south roof, and a utility that pays a fair export rate — and it isn't in others. There's no one-size number, so the honest answer is four numbers you already have: your bill, your rate, your roof, and your utility's export credit.
The four numbers that decide it
1) Your monthly kWh. Pull the last 12 bills — installers scale systems to this. 2) Your rate ($/kWh). 3) Your bill cash cost (the solar's savings). 4) Your utility's export credit — retail net metering vs net billing ~$0.05 (CPUC NEM 3, 2026-08-08).
Run those through the estimator on any state page — assumptions are stated. The United States rule of thumb ≈ 1,200 kWh per kW per year (in review); sun zone and tilt move ±30%.
Federal credit: 30% only for systems in service by Dec 31, 2025 (IRS, accessed 2026 — Guide #1). For 2026 installs, state incentives and your export rate carry the whole weight.