Solar loan vs lease (or PPA): honest ownership math
Decisions built from Buy (cash or loan) and Lease / PPA — editorial analysis, no sales stake; each figure sourced or labeled in review.
The payment plan decides more of your solar economics than the panel brand. A loan buys you the system and its kWh; a lease or PPA keeps the system owned by the installer, moves the federal credit to them, and replaces your electric bill with a different monthly bill.
At a glance: Buy (cash or loan) vs Lease / PPA
| Buy (cash or loan) | Lease / PPA | |
|---|---|---|
| Who owns the system | You — kWh are yours | The installer/financier |
| Federal credit (30%) | You claim it (2022-25 installs) | The owner claims it |
| What you compare | Price ÷ watts = $/W | Escalator % per year |
| End of term | Paid-off asset | Renew, buy out, or keep paying |
When Buy (cash or loan) wins
- Over 25 years, the kWh of a purchased system cost the least — after payback, that production is effectively free.
- $/W survives comparison across quotes; the loan's effective APR (ask for it) is a known number of yours.
When Lease / PPA wins
- Zero upfront and zero maintenance complexity — the installer owns repairs, and your month-to-month is predictable.
- On a rough or aging roof, a lease is the smoother ride on paper: you never own the repairs.
Draw: If you sell within 10 years, a leased system transfers to the buyer with your blessing (or scares one away); a bought system is a resale feature.
The honest verdict
The honest default for a homeowner staying put is buy-and-model with a solar loan at its effective APR. Leases/PPAs shift the 30% credit to the owner and keep you paying in year 22; only take one if your real constraint is cash and you cannot borrow cheaply. When a salesperson pitches the lease hard, ask them for the cash price of that same system first.
Where these figures come from
Federal credit rules from the IRS (accessed 2026-08-08); market prices from EnergySage 2026; export rates per state records cited on each state page (CPUC NEM 3 for California); typical-home usage EIA 2023. Anything verified carries its date; the rest says "in review" until confirmed.